From our “greatest living statistical communicator” (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding―and learning to embrace―risk and uncertainty in our daily lives.
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”―how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential―yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. Luckily for us, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to resolve the apparently random and decode the many decisions we face with imperfect information. In The Art of Uncertainty, he shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don’t know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what’s likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same order
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don’t, or simply cannot, know.
63 graphs, charts, and photographs
Will Mac –
Although, from the subtitle of ‘How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck’, I was disappointed not to see the application of several real life practical examples (including hints), the book is undoubtedly brilliant.
It is a wonderfully written ‘mathematical description’ and, I’d suggest, more for technical use. (Indeed the subtitle seems more the catchy type that publishers want on the cover more than academics might – to attract less technical people like me)
Dr David E. Ward –
Another superb contribution from this famous statistician who made major contributions to public understanding of the Covid epidemic (see on this site). There was nothing comparable to this when I was at medical schooI (“Facts from Figures”, was a bit indigestible) where I doubt statistics and probability is formally taught anymore. But they should be if, for example, clinical data and trials are to be better understood by medics. The Reverend Bayes also deserves greater recognition. I predict there is very little chance of this book being bettered for what it is – a serious introduction to statistics for the non-expert.
mike Morris –
The welcome eschewing of vague flowery language for grounded scientifically based precision very welcome.
Ann –
Bought this as a gift for my husband he s very pleased with it …easy to order and it was delivered promptly
Katharina –
Sehr interessantes Buch mit punktgenauer Lieferung.